Political Debates for 2036

Epistemic status: fun musings, numbers I made up.

Seat Belts #

In 2026 40,000 Americans will die from car accidents. In 2036 that number will be down to about 4,000, 96% of which will be caused by human drivers. The same people who don’t let me use my phone while the plane takes off will force me to wear a seatbelt in my Waymo.

San Francisco County will ban internal combustion vehicles. A tax on gas cars in NYC will get vetoed by the governor of New York, and that city will continue to turn my boogers black.

Budweiser’s Super Bowl ads will feature gas-powered Ford pickups instead of Clydesdales. China’s vehicle fleet will be 99% electric.

GMO Humans #

By 2036 four states will ban IVF entirely, six will ban any genetic testing of embryos, and twelve will ban testing for anything other than risk of disease or disability. Long legal battles will be fought over the definition of ‘disability,’ with California’s bill explicitly stating that blindness and deafness are not to be construed as disability, making it illegal to test embryos for these conditions. Eight percent of children born in the US will be from an embryo selected for IQ. Psychologists will try desperately to find a measure of EQ that aligns with how the term is used colloquially and doesn’t correlate positively with sociopathy. They will fail.

Bay Area elites will fly to Próspera for IVF clinics that will genetically edit their child. Many thousands of surrogates will be impregnated there each year.